Neuroscience
We're useless at predicting how we'll feel in future situations. What we dread usually doesn't leave us feeling so bad after all, and events we relish often end up leaving us cold. Now Dan Gilbert and colleagues have shown that our predictive powers can be improved in a rather simple way: by learning how someone else in our social network found the same experience. The trouble is we seem to have a persistent mental block about this, believing that our own best guess will be more insightful than information on how another person found the experience.
In an initial experiment, female undergrads predicted their enjoyment of a five-minute speed date. Those students who were told how much another female student had enjoyed speed-dating the same man subsequently forecast their own enjoyment far more accurately than did students who made their forecast based on factual information about the man. Despite this, at the end of the experiment, the participants still believed that information about a future dating partner would be a more useful aid to predicting their dating enjoyment than information about another woman's experience.
In a second experiment, students predicted how they would feel after having their personality categorised on the basis of a story they'd written. Consistent with the first experiment, those students who were told how another student had felt after the same experience subsequently forecast their own reaction far more accurately than did students who were instead given detailed information about the personality categorisation system.
"When we want to know our emotional futures, it is difficult to believe that a neighbour's experience can provide greater insight than our own best guess," Gilbert and his colleagues said.
The Digest asked Prof Gilbert why we make this systematic error. "My best guess," he told us, "is that we overestimate our uniqueness and thus don't think that other people's experiences can tell us much about our own."
Link to podcast interview with study author.
Link to previous Digest post about Dan Gilbert.
Link to earlier Digest post: We're useless at predicting how what happens will affect us emotionally.
Link to earlier Digest post: Overestimating the impact of future events.
_________________________________
D.T. Gilbert, M.A. Killingsworth, & R.N. Eyre (2009). The Surprising Power of Neighborly Advice. Science, 323, 1617-1619 DOI: 10.1126/science.1166632
Post written by Christian Jarrett (@psych_writer) for the BPS Research Digest.
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Neuroscience
Want to know how you'll feel? Ask a friend
We're useless at predicting how we'll feel in future situations. What we dread usually doesn't leave us feeling so bad after all, and events we relish often end up leaving us cold. Now Dan Gilbert and colleagues have shown that our predictive powers can be improved in a rather simple way: by learning how someone else in our social network found the same experience. The trouble is we seem to have a persistent mental block about this, believing that our own best guess will be more insightful than information on how another person found the experience.In an initial experiment, female undergrads predicted their enjoyment of a five-minute speed date. Those students who were told how much another female student had enjoyed speed-dating the same man subsequently forecast their own enjoyment far more accurately than did students who made their forecast based on factual information about the man. Despite this, at the end of the experiment, the participants still believed that information about a future dating partner would be a more useful aid to predicting their dating enjoyment than information about another woman's experience.
In a second experiment, students predicted how they would feel after having their personality categorised on the basis of a story they'd written. Consistent with the first experiment, those students who were told how another student had felt after the same experience subsequently forecast their own reaction far more accurately than did students who were instead given detailed information about the personality categorisation system.
"When we want to know our emotional futures, it is difficult to believe that a neighbour's experience can provide greater insight than our own best guess," Gilbert and his colleagues said.
The Digest asked Prof Gilbert why we make this systematic error. "My best guess," he told us, "is that we overestimate our uniqueness and thus don't think that other people's experiences can tell us much about our own."
Link to podcast interview with study author.
Link to previous Digest post about Dan Gilbert.
Link to earlier Digest post: We're useless at predicting how what happens will affect us emotionally.
Link to earlier Digest post: Overestimating the impact of future events.
_________________________________
D.T. Gilbert, M.A. Killingsworth, & R.N. Eyre (2009). The Surprising Power of Neighborly Advice. Science, 323, 1617-1619 DOI: 10.1126/science.1166632Post written by Christian Jarrett (@psych_writer) for the BPS Research Digest.
- Mimicry Improves Women's Speed-dating Success
Women hoping to appeal to speed-dating partners should try subtly mimicking the words and body-language of their dates. That's according to Nicholas Gueguen whose new study shows that women who mimic are rated by men as more sexually attractive. Gueguen...
- We're Useless At Predicting How What Happens Will Affect Us Emotionally
When making decisions, a key factor we weigh up is how we think the outcome of our decisions will make us feel emotionally – what psychologists call postdecisional affect. The trouble is, we're useless at predicting how we'll feel. Nick Sevdalis...
- The Downside Of Having Too Much Love
Those people who give the impression they like pretty much everyone, tend to be popular and liked themselves. But a new study of speed daters suggests the opposite is true in a romantic context. In this case, the more daters a person reported finding...
- Overestimating The Impact Of Future Events
If I asked you to predict how you’d react emotionally to a given situation – say your train to work was cancelled, or if your football team were to win next Saturday – then research suggests you would overestimate its emotional effect on you. That’s...
- Pursue A Summer Research Assistant Position With Harvard University's Daniel Gilbert Lab!
Daniel Gilbert's Lab at Harvard University is accepting applications for volunteer research assistants for the summer. The ideal candidate is a motivated undergraduate or recent graduate with a keen interest in social psychology. Research experience...