Neuroscience
Psychologists have shown that people tend to underestimate how long things will take them, both in their personal and business lives. But most research into ‘the planning fallacy’, as it’s known, has been with individuals. Now psychologists in Canada have shown that when working in a group, we’re even more unrealistically optimistic about how quickly we can get things done.
In two studies, Roger Buehler at Wilfrid Laurier University and his colleagues followed hundreds of business students as they undertook lengthy group projects. They asked the students to estimate individually how long the different project stages would take, and they also asked them to make a group estimate once they had discussed the projects together. Their estimates were compared with how long the work actually took. In a third study, hundreds of participants estimated individually, and in groups, how long a group puzzle task would take them. As a guide, they were even told how long the task had taken other groups. Findings from all three studies pointed to the same conclusion – in groups we become even more unrealistically optimistic about how long things will take us.
Why might this happen? From notes they were asked to make afterwards, it was found that when participants made time estimates in a group, they tended to think more positively, focusing on things like their skill at the task, or the apparent ability of their team-mates. It’s also possible that in groups people might want to be seen to be positive by their team mates, thus encouraging them to make more optimistic estimates.
“These findings may be applicable to many collaborative work ventures” the authors said. “…Forecasters may well be advised to collect and aggregate individual forecasts, instead of engaging in group discussion”.
__________________________________
Buehler, R., Messervey, D. & Griffin, D. (2005). Collaborative planning and prediction: does group discussion affect optimistic biases in time estimation. Organisational Behaviour and Human Decision Processes, 97, 47-63.
Post written by Christian Jarrett (@psych_writer) for the BPS Research Digest.
- Tapping Into People's Earliest Memories
When it comes to psychologists identifying people's earliest memories, the approach they take matters a lot. That's according to New Zealand psychologists Fiona Jack and Harlene Hayne who say their finding helps explain some of the mixed opinion...
- Three-person Groups Best For Problem-solving
Individuals may outperform groups when it comes to brainstorming for ideas (see earlier post), but for logic-based problem solving, it seems three-person groups work best. That’s according to Patrick Laughlin and colleagues who tested 760 students on...
- Why Do We Still Believe In Group Brainstorming?
So you need some fresh, innovative ideas. What do you do? Get a group of your best thinkers together to bounce ideas of each other…? No, wrong answer. Time and again research has shown that people think of more new ideas on their own than they do in...
- Mind Where You Sit - How Being In The Middle Is Associated With Superior Performance
If you’re going for a group interview, or if you want to make an impression in class, try to sit as centrally as you can – new research suggests observers tend to overestimate the performance of people located in the centre. Priya Raghubir and Ana...
- Get Paid To Participate In A Nasa Group Behavior Research Study!
Institutes for Behavior Resources Baltimore, MD Paid Group Behavior Research Participants Study Description: This is a NASA funded research study focusing on understanding the behavior, performance, and physiology of individuals and groups using a simulated,...
Neuroscience
Is your time always running out?
Psychologists have shown that people tend to underestimate how long things will take them, both in their personal and business lives. But most research into ‘the planning fallacy’, as it’s known, has been with individuals. Now psychologists in Canada have shown that when working in a group, we’re even more unrealistically optimistic about how quickly we can get things done.
In two studies, Roger Buehler at Wilfrid Laurier University and his colleagues followed hundreds of business students as they undertook lengthy group projects. They asked the students to estimate individually how long the different project stages would take, and they also asked them to make a group estimate once they had discussed the projects together. Their estimates were compared with how long the work actually took. In a third study, hundreds of participants estimated individually, and in groups, how long a group puzzle task would take them. As a guide, they were even told how long the task had taken other groups. Findings from all three studies pointed to the same conclusion – in groups we become even more unrealistically optimistic about how long things will take us.
Why might this happen? From notes they were asked to make afterwards, it was found that when participants made time estimates in a group, they tended to think more positively, focusing on things like their skill at the task, or the apparent ability of their team-mates. It’s also possible that in groups people might want to be seen to be positive by their team mates, thus encouraging them to make more optimistic estimates.
“These findings may be applicable to many collaborative work ventures” the authors said. “…Forecasters may well be advised to collect and aggregate individual forecasts, instead of engaging in group discussion”.
__________________________________
Buehler, R., Messervey, D. & Griffin, D. (2005). Collaborative planning and prediction: does group discussion affect optimistic biases in time estimation. Organisational Behaviour and Human Decision Processes, 97, 47-63.
Post written by Christian Jarrett (@psych_writer) for the BPS Research Digest.
- Tapping Into People's Earliest Memories
When it comes to psychologists identifying people's earliest memories, the approach they take matters a lot. That's according to New Zealand psychologists Fiona Jack and Harlene Hayne who say their finding helps explain some of the mixed opinion...
- Three-person Groups Best For Problem-solving
Individuals may outperform groups when it comes to brainstorming for ideas (see earlier post), but for logic-based problem solving, it seems three-person groups work best. That’s according to Patrick Laughlin and colleagues who tested 760 students on...
- Why Do We Still Believe In Group Brainstorming?
So you need some fresh, innovative ideas. What do you do? Get a group of your best thinkers together to bounce ideas of each other…? No, wrong answer. Time and again research has shown that people think of more new ideas on their own than they do in...
- Mind Where You Sit - How Being In The Middle Is Associated With Superior Performance
If you’re going for a group interview, or if you want to make an impression in class, try to sit as centrally as you can – new research suggests observers tend to overestimate the performance of people located in the centre. Priya Raghubir and Ana...
- Get Paid To Participate In A Nasa Group Behavior Research Study!
Institutes for Behavior Resources Baltimore, MD Paid Group Behavior Research Participants Study Description: This is a NASA funded research study focusing on understanding the behavior, performance, and physiology of individuals and groups using a simulated,...