Neuroscience
Don't Trust Experts' Forecasts, Experts Suggest
Um....yeah. Sure.
Don't Trust Experts' Forecasts, Study Suggests
Science Daily — A study about predicting the outcome of actual conflicts found that the forecasts of experts who use their unaided judgment are little better than those of novices, according to a new study in a publication of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences.
Thank you, INFORMS, for those words of wisdom.
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Extras
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Want To Predict A Footie Result? Don't Even Think About It
Imagine you've just paid an expert good money for their verdict and they say to you: "Can you hang on a couple of minutes whilst I don't think about this". You'd be forgiven for thinking they've gone silly. They may have. But another possibility...
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Armchair Experts Have Their Limits
Armchair commentators take note: when it comes to predicting whether players are going to make a shot, it really does make all the difference if you currently play the sport yourself. Salvatore Aglioti and colleagues filmed a player attempting to throw...
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Overestimating The Impact Of Future Events
If I asked you to predict how you’d react emotionally to a given situation – say your train to work was cancelled, or if your football team were to win next Saturday – then research suggests you would overestimate its emotional effect on you. That’s...
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Learn To Trust Your Own Eyes
...or so says one of Jenny Holzer's truisms. As an addendum to yesterday's post on Oxytocin and Mind Reading, I present to you the comments of Professor Paul Zak as a public service announcement, sponsored by The Neurocritic: The synthetic oxytocin...
Neuroscience